Be@rbrick Odds: Cracking the Code

The series boxes all list the odds as percentages. 1.06% odds? 8.33% odds? What does that mean? All other blind boxed series list odds as a fraction so this can be a bit confusing not just for the math problems it begs of us.

It is pretty clear that 1/92 means that one design you’d find in every ninety two boxes you open (making it quite valuable to collectors) contains the design in question. The percentages tell the same story, but a different way. 1.06% means about one in a hundred. Where odds are provided we can round and calculate (see some examples translating percentage odds to the more common fraction method below). But variant and secret figures can be even more challenging to determine as odds for these items are not listed (yet seem to be accounted for in the odds printed on the boxes).

Taking a look at Series 31 the odds on the box state: Basic: 14.58%, Jellybean: 8.33%, Pattern: 8.33%, Flag: 7.29%, Horror: 8.33%, Sci-Fi: 9.37%, Cute: 9.37%, Animal: 7.29%, Hero: 8.33%, Artist: 2.08%, Artist: 6.25%. If we add this all up we only get 89.55% which means the remaining 10.45% consist of what is normally a few different rare “secret” or variant figures. Lots of people may seek the Minecraft figure from this series and should get one in about every eleven boxes opened by the odds.

  • 14.58% is about 1/7
  • 9.37% is about 1/11
  • 8.33% is about 1/12
  • 7.29% is about 1/13
  • 6.25% is about 1/15
  • 3.12% is about 1/32
  • 2.08% is about 1/48
  • 1.04% is about 1/96
  • 0.52% is about 1/192

Even with the “secret” designs normally falling between 1/32 and 1/192 it is still hard to determine how the variant figures (alternate versions of a listed design) figure in.

Adding further complexity is the fact that each of the Be@arbrick “basic” designs contain a simple design with one letter on the chest of each spelling out Be@rbrick. Looking at Series 31, we may assume that 9 letters that make up the title come to a total of 14.58%. So each letter is would mean each is 1.62% (or about 1/96) making them quite rare individually. But then B and R are listed twice– does that make those letters twice as easy to find as the others?